Wizards: 011012

There is a chance Michael Lee not a particularly observant spectator.

A mere four sentences in to his recap of the Wizards loss to the Timberwolves, he reports that "Coach Flip Saunders helplessly searched for a player who would at least show mock interest in competing". Garbage. And I will name names.

The list starts with Chris Singleton. Unmentioned in the article, Singleton, with the help of Rashard Lewis's absence, (Also unmentioned in the article. These were the two most remarkable things from the game.) started his first career NBA game after doing more than compete in each home game this season. He flusters a variety of opponents on the defensive end in the SF to G slots and passes the ball on offense.

The list does not include Andray Blatche, who, as best as I can tell, does not like playing basketball and isn't particularly good at anything other than being appropriately sized and wanting to score. Noncontextually, of course.

The list includes John Wall, whose one-man fastbreak layups are not only the best offensive option the Wizards possess, but they are his inexplicable otherworldy talent. This is what is worth watching about Wall. This is his gift. He will take the ball from below the defensive FT line, look upcourt, see 3-4 defenders and 1-2 teammates and proceed beat them all to the basket. John Wall + Water = Fast Break.

The list does not include Jordan Crawford. He's like a cross between Andray Blatche and Jamal Crawford. Except without Jamal's ability to get scorching hot or Blatche's ability to collect rebounds by default.

The list includes JaVale McGee. This guy is a true NBA center. He's, admittedly, still developing moves other than "Fake to the lane, pivot to the baseline and out-freak-athlete the defender toward the rim somehow", but he blocks shots, rebounds, runs the floor and finishes at the rim. Plus the announcer loves his name.

The list includes Nick Young. I know it looks like he isn't trying. And his chronic inability to pass to the wide-open player is spellbinding. The thing is, he simply doesn't do either of those things. He also doesn't play defense. He is, however, the most reliable isolation scoring option on the team. He can score buckets against NBA-level defenders. He cannot read a defense and make decisions. One-on-one, he's a tough cover. Oh, and he's constantly using his lack of obvious effort to trick you into a cheap turnover or two.

The list includes Booker, Seraphin, Mason and Mack. They're all good. None of them seem particularly great at anything. They don't stand out, but they can play. They don't know when it is their turn and when it is someone else's turn, but they're not black holes on offense, and they're not terrible at defense. They are system guys. They have to be taught the O and D and how to make decisions based on the system, rather than what they are individually thinking. Heck, McGee, Singleton and Wall are ALL system players in a half-court offense. They do each shine at other individual aspects of the game though.

The list does not include Flip Saunders. He has a young athletic team which thrives on being aggressive. To wit:

1. The 10 blocked shots by the Wizards against the Timberwolves.
2. The Wizards lead the league in blocked shots and average 3.25 more blocks than their opponents per game.
3. The Wizards are 8th in the league in total steals and outsteal their opponents by 2.38 per game, good for 4th best in the league.

I don't mean to suggest that the Wizards are particularly good at defense. That would be dumb: They are giving up the 4th most points per game in the league, and are being outrebounded by 8 per game, the worst in the league. Sure, this has to do with their lack of an actual PF who beats the piss out of his opponents down low to compliment McGee's athleticism, but it also has to do with a lack of belief. To commit yourself to rebounding is to commit yourself to punishment and redemption. You must believe that even though your idiot teammate can't shoot, that you'll give up your body and the team will do better with this extra possession. You must believe that even though your opponent got off a shot, they missed it and now you will give up your body so that the team will score on offense.

The Wizards, as a collective, totally lack this belief.

Individually, players believe they can score. Systemically, they do not. They do not believe that they get easy buckets from their offense, because they don't. The ball stops at inappropriate times and continues at worse. The players run the plays, but they don't know what, exactly, is supposed to come out of them.

On the other hand, they go on runs. They get a generate a couple of steals/blocks back-to-back and Wall generates a couple of one-man fastbreaks. The pace of the game increases. The heartrate in the building and the opponents goes up. They show off how athletic they are by taking risks and covering for each other. Steals and blocks indicate activity and effort.

Then the Wizards lose hope. Blatche tries to ride someone else's fire. Crawford self-immolates. Someone other than Nick Young tries to create on offense. (I'm looking at YOU, Singleton and Wall.) JaVale doesn't jump for a board. They lose belief in their ability to compete.

This team needs to play faster. This team needs to press. This team needs to gamble. This team, the youngest team in the league, needs to run their opponents out of the gym. They need to run into their opponents on fastbreaks. They need to run right up their defender's chest on the break. They need to never be in a half-court offense. They need to learn the slow break to compliment the fast break. The best way to forget about failure is to move on to the next act as quickly as possible.

This team needs to know their roles. They do not. They are all alternately overreaching and under-efforting. Taking it easy during the parts of the game they need to work harder and putting too much on their own shoulders when they need to share the load. These are things a coach teaches them to do.

When I first started watching the Wizards this season, Flip Saunders looked like he was in his first season. I was shocked to learn that he's been here for years. Then, I read Mike Wise's piece on the Wizards being "dismal by design" which inexplicably exonerates Saunders from any wrong-doing. While the piece does succinctly recap what, exactly, led to this team being 0-8 over the years, it paints a picture of Flip painfully sitting on the sideline while Blatche says crazy shit, JaVale says ignorant shit and players-only meetings are the end of the world. Well, Blatche is lost on this team, JaVale is trying to be friendly while playing rather well, and player-only meetings are just meetings.

Then Mr. Wise plays a quick round of the Blame Game, as if something like an 0-8 start can be directed at an individual. The problem is systemic. The players do not believe in their system, Flip is powerless in Leonsis&Grunfeld's system, Leonsis&Grunfeld system is built within the league system which works over years rather than games.

Flip is therefore one who must change his system. He has already lost the ability to make these players believe that they can compete. As he was quoted in Mr. Lee's article, "You can't give 82 Knute Rockne speeches every night." Yes, I agree. The issue is that speeches, while they can pull deeply-felt truths to the surface, cannot create belief. In competition, success creates belief. With the Wizards, Mr. Saunders has not created success. No, 49-123 is not all his fault, as Mr. Wise adeptly explains on his behalf. It is, however, the record the Wizards see when they look at their coach as well as the record they feel in the ruts of the offensive and defensive strategies they implement.

The Wizards do not have hope, redemption, faith, belief or science to cling to. They simply need change. They need something exciting. They need new traditions. Dig out that old full and 3/4 court press. Opponents are scoring just fine, maybe they'll be caught off-guard. Drop into some trap-zone and trap-man looks in the half court. Losses don't come by much more than 13pts per night, which leads the league. Convince your opponents to sign the turnover compact and plot a more variable course for the evening. Bring out an irrational box-and-one or a goofy 2-2-1. Increase the total number of possessions in the game for both teams by encouraging quicker shots on both ends with defensive gambles matched with a constant dead sprint on offense. More possessions equals more steals and more blocks. More abrupt changes from half-court defense to full-court offense. More running, more gunning. There is literally nowhere to go but up.

This is the turnaround moment in the movie. The moment when the old ball coach tries something new, or the moment when the old ball coach is fired for a new experimental ball coach. This is when we receive grainy footage transmitted by slightly arcane technology of something fresh, yet totally ancient. An inspiration for a group of rebels, waging an uneven war. Mobilizing the youth to believe in an iconic, photogenic leader. Decked out in an interpretation of the colors of his home nation's flag: Red, white and blue.

No, not President Obama in 2008 as HOPE for the legions who had not felt their vote mattered before him. A reference far more lasting:

"Help me Obi-[J]an, you're my only hope."

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Walkthrow

I know, the name is not as clever

as The Wiggins Zen Throwing Routine

but then again, I never was clever.

Point is, nearly everything is in there is great. Specifically have used over seasons myself: Warmup littles, Strobe Catches, Rainbows, Single Leg Throws, Throw Hard, Quiet Catches, Target Throwing, Late Eye Pickups, Full-Power Windups, Catch&Release Long, Off-Leg Pivots, Dishies. Under different names and with sometimes different focus. The rest I have less experience with, but I find appealing.

The two things I would add in are:

1. Loud Catches.
Duration: 1 minute
Description: Catch each throw with as much noise as possible, even when throwing soft. It may help to extend arms and catch while bringing them down towards your neutral throwing position.
Upper-level: Do this while moving toward the thrower.
Other-level: Taco the disc on your catches.

Goal: Develop catching prowess through power catches. If you can make the noise catches consistently, you can make all catches consistently.

2. Walkthrow
Duration: 1-5 minutes
Description: Start at ~2yds and throw with your partner. One rule: You must walk at all times, unless you are accelerating to catch a disc. No travels, no change of direction. Throw in time with your walk (Catch, step, throw). Lead your receiver.
Second iteration: On each catch, start your throw in the drection you're traveling (a righty walking to his left would start to throw a backhand, naturally), then pivot and throw the opposite.
Upper level: Throw the throw opposite your momentum without stopping. (a righty walking to his left would throw a flick while traveling left)

Goal: Slow your momentum down to conscious levels. Control your momentum w/r/t your throwing motion. Throwing the throw your momentum dictates to a location determined by someone else.

This last one seems complex to explain, and really simple to execute. The point is that it slows down and focuses on the fundamental transition from receiver to thrower. You catch teh disc going in a direction, leading to your likely first throw/fake. Your receivers do something as this is occuring, determining where you can throw to. If you can, you want to throw your first option (the one w/ the momentum). I you can't, you want to throw your second option as quickly as possible, before the defense can adjust. You need to do the following things: Catch, get the disc ready to leave your hands, get balanced (aka footwork), read the field, throw.

This is a fun warmup to do with your team before a game too. Break up into groups of 2-3 and use the whole half a field your team gets. Don't hit your teammates, throw only with your group. Do for 2 minutes. Increase awareness of field awareness.

I can't necessarily beat you at stalls 3-7, but those first 0-2? I'm aces. Walkthrow has a lot to do with it. Along with Catch&Release, dishies, Throw Hard and Full Power Windups. (The other is the 2-stall 4-6 man marking drill...)

I rarely drop a disc. This has a lot to do with quiet catch, loud catch, strobe lights and late-eye pickup (aka the jude and j drill).

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Quarters is When

Anything Can Happen

And at least one usually does.

Revolver vs Southpaw.
Southpaw late in the day is the worst team to play against. Southpaw early in the day? On an elimination round that could well come down to diversity of O and D times "Top Level Talent"... I'll take Revolver. But I think It'll be 15-(11-10) rather than 8 or so.

Doublewide v GOAT.
I definitley have DW in this one. Love ya GOATies, but... Some teams this weekend have shown they're on a mission. You're not one of them. 15-9, barring a late-game run from GOAT to make it seem closer.

Ironside v Madison.
Ironside is better than the teams Madison beat yesterday. By a good stretch. Is there a bit of chock for them in this one? I say yes. Ironside roars out to an early lead taking half to the tune of 8-3/4 and then MAdison makes a second half run to get within 2 (thinking 11-9) and then Ironside rides out to 15-10 or so.

Even though I say that, I think Ironside v Madison is the game with the biggest upset potental. Followed by: Revolver v Southpaw, Ring v Chain and DW v GOAT. In that order.

Ring v Chain.
This is the barnburner. That kind of flavor. I bet there are tuns and breaks and one-throw possessions in this one. These two teams, for whatever else they have, play high speed and go for the win rather than going for the "not-loss", so to speak. 17-16 Ring.

Finally, thus far, Oakland has lost to Madison, Chain, Doublewide. Tough fuckin' draw, that pool was. Since then, 2-0. Now they get to settle a score with Truck from Regionals in the semi-ninals. It'll do, but the schedule gods are cruel.

Good luck to all.

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so it took me until after lunch

to think about frisbee today

Open Pool A
Revolver might get challenged in one of these games. To the tune of 15-11 or so. The other two are 15-8 or less. Bravo or Goat? Tossup as always when the 8-9 seeds meet. As for the 'Dors? I have no faith.

Well, two tighter (15-11/12) games for Revolver. One 15-8. 15-9 against Machine in 1st round today.
GOAT takes it, only to lose 15-13 to Ring in power pool.
Bravo and the Condors go on to win the first games in kiddie pools.

these were against

Open Pool C
This is a mess. A Happy mess. Avg margin of victory in this pool will be <3 points. I'm going to pencil Southpaw in for 3 DGP games. I have no idea if they'll win or lose. My instinct tells me that Machine is the loser of this group and that Ring will not go undefeated. Furious? Well... I don't think they'll go undefeated either, but they definitely have the inside track to finishing 1 in the pool. FG and... I'll pick "Whichever team wins btw Ring and Paw" to advance. Machine and the loser of the MA battle go down.

Well, it was a mess, for sure. Ring wins the pool with 15-10 over Machine and doubling up Southpaw 15-7.
Furious starts off with a pair of 12-15 losses to Machine and Southpaw.
The pool finishes with two 17-16 games, the meaningless Ring>Furious and the vital Machine>Southpaw.

Ring is now secure in the quarters after their win over GOAT.
Revolver is secure in the quarters after their win over Machine.

GOAT v Machine for the right to go to the beach instead of playing pre-q.

Furious is out of Pre-Q with their loss to Bravo.
If Bravo wins the next one v Southpaw, they're in a pre-q.

Open Pool B
I think Ironside is actually be in for a bit of a tough time with this pool. In the end, yeah, I think they take it, but this pool is quite a bit more challenging for Boston than Pool A is for Revolver. Not convinced that Truck won't drop a winnable game to Sub-Zero, but I'd definitely put money on Truck if forced. Finally, which of S-Z or Tanasi will blow their Day 1 load against Truck&Ironside and lose a tight one only to get sent to the kiddie pool with a loss? Schedule says it is more likely to be S-Z. Especially if they get televised. Harder to throw a game when the fans who voted to see you are watching at home...

I'm always wrong about Ironside. They go 15-10,3,7. Then 15-9 in Power Pool v Chain. I'm guessing effeciency on the D-line is high. Get those O Players ready to start earning their keep without such big margins...
Truck joins them going 15-8,11 over Tanasi and S-Z. Promptly losing to Doublewide 15-8 on Day 2.
Spot on about Sub-Zero and Tanasi. Tanasi lost 15-3 while S-Z fought Truck for 15-11. Tanasi wins the next round v Sub-Zero. Both lose the first round in the kiddie pool.

These guys crossed over vs:

Open Pool D
Based on this tweet from @oaklandultimate I bet they win the annual award for "New team that shows up to their field late because they underestimated the traffic/parking/size of the fields/whatever". The other thing that'll happen to Oakland is that they think they'll know what's about to hit them when they play Chain and DW... but playing them at Nationals is a whole other thing. I am not saying that Oakland can't hang, but that they won't in those games. I will pick Oakland for the upset against Madison solely because of the number of times I've had Kanye&Jay-Z's Hate jump into my head because of you clowns. Late in the day, the Hate builds. As for Chain and DW... I pick Chain b/c of depth. Even after last year's Brodie-centric beating of PoNY (seriously... it felt like all of their offensive points were "Catch pull. Hit Brodie at the front of the stack. Give him 9 seconds to bomb it to someone beating double coverage."), I think Chain's style of point distribution mixed with a more coherent set of players/strategies will send them up to the power pool with the W from Double*ide.

Well, I was wrong on Doublewide, winners 15-9,8,6. Then a pair of 15-9 victories by DW&Ironside put them both into the quarters.

Chain v Truck for the next quarters spot. Loser plays pre-q's.

Oakland wwent down 9,8-15 in the first two games. Pretty spot on about that. Seems like the other teams let off the gas a little later in the games. Thought they'd beat out Madison though. Not to be w/ a 10-15 loss.

Madison pays back Sub-Zero for, well, everything in the first round today and eliminates them from pre-q's.
With a Club win over Tanasi, they'll be in pre-q.

So, we've got:

Quarters or better: Revolver v Ring, Ironside v Doublewide.
Playing for Quarters: Machine v GOAT, Chain v Truck.

Inside track to Pre-Q: Bravo, Madison.
Other: Southpaw, Oakland, Condors, Tanasi.

Playing for 13th: Sub-Zero, Furious.

Nice. Hope it's fun down there!

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Ha, I'm Retired

So I'm not in Sarasota

But this time, unlike 06&08, I'm actually not at all grumpy about it.

Being retired is fun. It means things like going to farmers' markets, meandering, checking out the new neighborhood, drinking a flight of Zwanzes at ChurckKey and the like are actually things I get to do before it gets bitter cold outside. Not that bitter cold stops a crazy-ass Northern European mutt like myself... but sometimes it gives one paws. I mean... pause.

The trade made is that I'm not down at the nexus of the universe of ultimate. Not getting irrational goosebumps on Tuesday. Not falling asleep dreaming of things I'll to do on the field while my teammates toss and turn. Not seeing the sun rise as the steam floats from my coffee.

More specifically, I'm not wander over to ask Jim and Jaeger 1000 little questions. I'm not getting lessons in what to cook for breakfast from J and Jude. I'm not seeing a Ho-train at a Waffle House at 3am with LambJuice, Lunchbox, Spike and Squigglio. I'm not talking the speed of coffee consumption with a farmer. And I'm definitely not watching Troll 2.

So it goes.

That all said, I'm missing Sara' just enough this morning to write a little on some pre-game thoughts. Not sure how this 'll come out since it is 7:40am on a Thursday and my goal is to finish this by 8:15, but away we go. Oh, and my computer battery seems to be burning itself in effigy. Only without the flames or the effigy. I mean it is running out of charge.

Open Pool A
Revolver might get challenged in one of these games. To the tune of 15-11 or so. The other two are 15-8 or less. Bravo or Goat? Tossup as always when the 8-9 seeds meet. As for the 'Dors? I have no faith.

Open Pool B
I think Ironside is actually be in for a bit of a tough time with this pool. In the end, yeah, I think they take it, but this pool is quite a bit more challenging for Boston than Pool A is for Revolver. Not convinced that Truck won't drop a winnable game to Sub-Zero, but I'd definitely put money on Truck if forced. Finally, which of S-Z or Tanasi will blow their Day 1 load against Truck&Ironside and lose a tight one only to get sent to the kiddie pool with a loss? Schedule says it is more likely to be S-Z. Especially if they get televised. Harder to thhrow a game when the fans who voted to see you are watching at home...

Open Pool C
This is a mess. A Happy mess. Avg margin of victory in this pool will be <3 points. I'm going to pencil Southpaw in for 3 DGP games. I have no idea if they'll win or lose. My instinct tells me that Machine is the loser of this group and that Ring will not go undefeated. Furious? Well... I don't think they'll go undefeated either, but they definitely have the inside track to finishing 1 in the pool. FG and... I'll pick "Whichever team wins btw Ring and Paw" to advance. Machine and the loser of the MA battle go down.

Open Pool D
Based on this tweet from @oaklandultimate I bet they win the annual award for "New team that shows up to their field late because they underestimated the traffic/parking/size of the fields/whatever". The other thing that'll happen to Oakland is that they think they'll know what's about to hit them when they play Chain and DW... but playing them at Nationals is a whole other thing. I am not saying that Oakland can't hang, but that they won't in those games. I will pick Oakland for the upset against Madison solely because of the number of times I've had Kanye&Jay-Z's Hate jump into my head because of you clowns. Late in the day, the Hate builds. As for Chain and DW... I pick Chain b/c of depth. Even after last year's Brodie-centric beating of PoNY (seriously... it felt like all of their offensive points were "Catch pull. Hit Brodie at the front of the stack. Give him 9 seconds to bomb it to someone beating double coverage."), I think Chain's style of point distribution mixed with a more coherent set of players/strategies will send them up to the power pool with the W from Double*ide.

As for Coed? Well, we're already 1 minute overtime. I'll just say I'm rooting for D5, The Ghosts, Slow White, Termite's and AMP to rock some shit. Women's? Green Means Go isn't there, so... I'll cheer for Bent.

Edition #2 tomorrow? Only Time Will Tell.

Damn. 6min overtime.

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Burning Ring

Back on top again


And all is right in the Midatlantic.

Congrats to qualifiers Ring, Truck Stop, Oakland, Southpaw.

This weekend I played with Ellis Kim's Seatless Bicycle. Or, 9 no 14 no 13 no 7 no 8 /27ths of our roster. That is to say, At sectionals we had about 13 guys. Which was good. At Regionals which was on October First and Se, no Oct. Eighth andbutsoitmightbe October First still in Kennett Squa... no, definitely October Eighth and Ninth in Poolesville as was originally planned as a backup. No, we're going to Kennett Square probably this weekend.

Point is, we went from about 27 guys on the roster (at least 4 of whom we never saw all year) to expecting 24 for Regionals. Then we were expecting 14 maybe 18 for Regionals when it was rescheduled. Then we gained or lost depending on where it was that weekend and how late we found out as the weekend approached.

We had 14. I think. A guy from Fishtown in my car forgot his cleats. But he remembered his Roots and to lock the front door. Beam to North Philly for the never-materializing-for-club-ultimate-"Dundee", fly to west Philly for Cuatro and Smellis and then back to the beginning of this sentence. Back to Fishtown.

95 to 322 to 1 to the game just started over there versus Cash Crop.

We have possessions on O and D that end in drops. Some in the endzone. Some just bizarre. Finkbot is overheating. Some multiple-drop points on our side. Too many points are being played. We lose 15-8.

Next round versus Medicine Men. We have more drops. We are down at half. Then we go on a mini-run to start the second half. How many drops? Too many, money. It was unreal. Surreal. Hyperreal.

No, just really actually normal real. For a team with no pracices and too much rain everywhere to play anything against other teams... it was expected. Irene knocked over the goddamn Bike.

Med Men win 15-8.

Cash Crop plays like they know they're good.
Med Men play like they have to prove to you and each other they're good.

They're both not bad.

Through two games, we found one consistent way to fail.

We play competent defense and messy though competent offense.

Then we get a sectionals rematch vs Hypnotoad who is clearly more excited to play us this time around than they were at sectionals. And we are clearly less excited to be playing them at this point in the day. We get out to a couple of leads, and then have more drops and they put it up with enough success that that convert some of their break opportunities on the key notion that most of us have already played far more points per hour than this contract called for. Some guy had to farm. Another guy is working in Illinois. Some gotta do grants and shit. Some have wife-passes that turn into pumpkins and some's wife-passes contain no-raincheck clauses. And then there are guys who can't spell their own first names.

Oh, and it definitely didn't help us that our biggest cutter and most reliable deep threat, Nick Scheiner, seemed to have definitively hurt his knee going up faaaar too early for a disc and getting undercut by a defender. Yikes.

Then a Sectionals Rematch vs the three seed from another pool: Bearproof. This is like the adult version of Hypnotoad. This does not end well for EKSB since we have lost our will to actually run deep on defense and attempt to substitute "stand rather deep and hope they don't throw it" which doesn't work against a team that it used to winning or losing by throwing it anyway and our deep defenders are like 5'10". Loss for us, with fewer drops, 9-15.

And now we're eliminated from the series. Series results:

7-15 L Southpaw
11-15 L Bearproof
15-8 W Gavel
13-2 W Princeton
13-5 W Hypnotoad
13-5 W Lehigh Alums

8-15 L Cash Crop
8-15 L Medicine Men
15-13 W Hypnotoad
9-15 L Bearproof

5-5, played against 2 teams outside our section. Tomorrow we play in the kiddie pool!

---

Most of our team declard themselves out for the next day. We talked some of them back into it... but... One of them had to get to a hospital the next day... Anyway, a crazy trip to the beer-excellent Pinocchio's Pizza was undertaken.

The next morning had us pitted against Queen City Thunder who were unsure if we would show. I too was unsure. We got 7 on by about 9:15. On o the guys who didn't get on was from Rutgers and was there before the rest of us. Not Smellis.

They were up pretty big. I think still up big at half. Maybe 2-8 or 3-8? Then we were up 9-8.

Then we traded and went on mini runs or something until it was 11-12 and they were pulling to us. I got it and overthrew a 55yd blade to Venose. Which is hard to do. They scored to make it 11-13, game to 14. Some cap something was involved in there, not sure when, but this was the correct result.

We scored, they scored, game over.

Yay, we finish 13th?

---

Wait, we finished sectionals and regionals without playing a single team from western PA? No ugly-since-1995 game against Pittsburgh? Weird.

Southpaw and Oakland are real.

The difference btw Southpaw and Oakland is vast but little.

---

Update of Southpaw's record, into tiers:

to make:
0-1 v Chain, Furious, Revolver (-22 pf diff, -7.33 per game)
1-3 v Ironside (-18 pt diff, -4.5 per game)

2-4 v PoNY (-11 pt diff, -1.83 per game)
0-1 v Voodoo, GB, Ring (-5 pt diff, -1.67

2-1 v Cash Crop (-1, -.25)
3-0 v Oakland, NexGen (+6 pt diff, +2 per game)

2-1 v MedMen (+9 pt diff, +3 per game)
1-0 v Truck Stop (+4)
1-0 v Dire Wolf, Hypnotoad, VA Squires (+16, +5.33)
1-0 v Bear Proof, EKSB (+15, +7.5)
2-0 v Philly Gavel, QCT, Swell(+34, +11.33)

Looking at that, knowing that they're going to Nationals, what might you wonder? How did they do against Truck stop at Regionals? Never Happened.

How about now that Cash Crop isn't there? Cash Crop v Truck Stop never happened. At all. All season. How about Cash Crop v Ring? Never happened at Regionals.

In the Sunday 1pm round, 4 teams all played nationals-level games. They all proved theselves worthy. Ring and Truck played a great final. 15-14. Oakland and Cash Crop played a great 14-13 game next door. All of those teams are Nationals-level.

Southpaw is Nationals-level too. But Medicine Men were not up to the level of play that equals that round in the bracket. If you're playing, you're playing either "Finals" or "Game to go" or "Game to Go Home". There are 4 teams alive for 2 spots. After this round, There will be 2 alive for 1 spot. Losing 15-10... puts you in the place you were before regionals. Just like you were the round before, losing 15-10 to the Haiders. Even EKSB playing savage only lost by 2 that round! I mean, if you're gonna upset the pool, do something with it.

Cash vs Southpaw in the game-to-go was predictable. Cash needed to take Oakland's path to advance. They didn't have the depth to stay with Southpaw in the 8th round of the weekend. Speaking of which, how cool would it have been to be the 8 or 9 seed in this format?? Basically play a 17pt exhibition game against the 1 seed, get a bye, and play one game that has no consequence w/r/t elimination? Sweet, right? Well, the Squires got rewarded with Pool D + W v Bear Proof (L to Oakland, Southpaw) to get Eliminated. Dire Wolf beat Swell and Capitol Punishment to lose to Med Men.

Or how about the notion that 6/7 Founders Teams, if seeds held, would have rematches on the first day. One for an elimination game. c3vb3. one for the last game of the only two eliminated teams on day 1: c4vb4. Someone in there could have been switched somewhere, right? Some matchup up or down one?

Anyway.

Southpaw might still be your 2011 "litmus test" AKA "TMITIU".

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Is Southpaw

The most important team

in ultimate?

So, this past weekend I played at club Sectionals for the first time where I wasn't the one seed. Different vantage point.

For example, the schedule is much more complicated. I get why teams obsess over this now. It was a series event and I had no idea what my team had to do in order to advance because I couldn't correctly parse the Format Manual for a 9-team 7-advance format. Also, we didn't know it was a 7-advance format until Wed or Thurs. Maybe Tues?

In fact, we still don't know. The number of teams advancing to Regionals still depends on the number of teams who actually play at sectionals. To some degree. Or something. Point is, if we finished top 2 in our 4 team pool, we'd play a bracket for top-4 on day 2. If we finished bottom 2, we'd carryover 1 game from day 1 and play in the kiddie pool for seeding from 5-9. In our pool were Southpaw (Quarters of Nationals), Bear Proof (Harrisburg-area team that is athletic and trying hard to improve) and Philly Gavel (Philly Northclaw?).

We'd never played any of them. I mean, we played Philly Open once in Delaware, but that definitely didn't count. Completely different teams. For everyone.

Our game against Southpaw started at noon:40. We played alright for a team that had no practices. Timid. Not trusting. But not terrible. A 15-8 loss was assured by the 4 or 5 short fields we gave them and the 1 ricochallahan that bounced off of a Gaulton before being caught by some bystander in yellow. The atlas warmup was good.

The game against Bearproof was a different show. We had many drops and many random throws. We had two culprits (who shall for now remain nameless) and a lot of accomplices. The beer garden, which had been pregamed in the first game, was now in full swing, however. We lost to a team that made more plays than us. They won the unforced error battle and won the 50/50 discs. This is not a recipe for success for EKSB. Bearproof victory 15-11.

Through two games, we found many ways to fail.

In the last game, we dialed in on some basics (subbing strategy, wizard-equivalence, jp and art's roles) and played exceedingly competent offense. Which was a good choice. We win this one 15-8.

Tomorrow we play in the kiddie pool!

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So I read this bit by ChucKlosterman on the moving pieces of college football. A good read. Some relevant points include the talent-gap in college football compared to the pros, the different resultant strategies and raises the question of which is more important, the strategy or the execution or the athlete or the what?

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The next day, we played 3 teams that basically had no interest in playing us. As far as I could tell. We were missing some people in the first game due to an ill-advised casino run in Philly. There was also a giant birthday party somewhere near Girard and Frankford. But we went with the delicious Sketch Burger. Someone was going shot for shot with Sandra Oh for a while there. Same guy who convinced someone not to throw the birthday cake out the 3rd story.

Yay, we finish 5th?

The bracket turned out as predicted. Southpaw over Oakland over Dire Wolf over Bear Proof.

Wait, we finished sectionals without playing a single team from western PA? No ugly-since-1995 game against Pittsburgh? Weird.

Southpaw and Oakland are real. Bear Proof is not. Dire Wolf... I don't know about. Not to say Bear Proof is bad... but...

The difference btw Southpaw and Oakland is vast but little.

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Klosterman's bit also lead to this piece which closes on a bit re: Navy in college football:

“I think the hardest thing for people is that you don’t see it week in and week out,” coach Ken Niumatalolo said. “Defensive coordinators know how to stop it. They know how to play against it. But you’re not seeing it every week. It takes away your instincts as a defender.

“It’s like the old Princeton [basketball] offense — four corners, backdooring everybody," Jasper said. "That’s how they slowed the game down and made other teams one-dimensional.”

Southpaw makes you one-dimensional. They run the same play(s). They adjust the same ways. But they do it very effectively, with a consistently low number of unforced errors. The adjustments they do have are made quickly. The options that take are taken in order.

If you have more talent, you can beat them. But they don't let you beat them on athleticism, work ethic, number of clipboards, awkwardyellowness of jerseys... You can beat them using strategy, but you can't use one strategy. You can't beat them by adjusting to them. They're trying to make you one-dimensional. If you adjust to them, your prime dimension is "not-them".

Essentially, if you meet the criteria of Nationals-caliber team, (Talent, Multiple Strategies, Not Out of Ultimate Shape, Have a Team Identity) you will likely beat them. Not that you always will, but that you will. If you're lacking a little in one of those areas, they'll have the advantage over you, but if you compensate in other areas with big advantages, you could still win more than you lose. If you're missing a component or two of those criteria? Well... you're gonna get lucky or lose or get lucky and lose.

Look at their record:

18-16

2-4 v PoNY (-11 pt diff, -2 per game)
1-1 v MedMen (+4 pt diff, +2 per game)
1-3 v Ironside (-18 pt diff, -4.25 per game)
0-1 v Chain, Voodoo, Great Britain, Cash Crop, Furious, Revolver (-24 pt diff, -4 per game)

Now, the GB and Voodoo games seem out of place there. They could be lumped in with either the MedMen or PoNY games without much of a difference. Then the last line becomes:

0-1 v Chain, Cash Crop, Furious, Revolver (-26 pf diff, -5.25 per game)

Which is more in line with Ironside's line.

Looks like tiers to me.

add in:
1-0 v Oakland, NexGen (+2 pt diff, +1 per game)
1-0 v Truck Stop (+4)
1-0 v Dire Wolf, Hypnotoad (+10, +5)
1-0 v Bear Proof, EKSB (+15, +7.5)
1-0 v Philly Gavel (+11)

to make:
0-1 v Chain, Cash Crop, Furious, Revolver (-26 pf diff, -6.25 per game)
1-3 v Ironside (-18 pt diff, -4.5 per game)
2-4 v PoNY (-11 pt diff, -1.83 per game)
0-1 v Voodoo, GB (-3 pt diff, -1.5
1-0 v Oakland, NexGen (+2 pt diff, +1 per game)
1-1 v MedMen (+4 pt diff, +2 per game)
1-0 v Truck Stop (+4)
1-0 v Dire Wolf, Hypnotoad (+10, +5)
1-0 v Bear Proof, EKSB (+15, +7.5)
1-0 v Philly Gavel (+11)

I suspect that Cash Crop won't stay in that spot, but they could. I susepct Truck was waylaid with some injuries at Boston... MA Regionals will be a MFShow.

I think Hypnotoad is overranked there and Gavel got overwhelmed.

Southpaw might be your 2011 "litmus test" AKA "TMITIU".

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