Quarters is When

Anything Can Happen

And at least one usually does.

Revolver vs Southpaw.
Southpaw late in the day is the worst team to play against. Southpaw early in the day? On an elimination round that could well come down to diversity of O and D times "Top Level Talent"... I'll take Revolver. But I think It'll be 15-(11-10) rather than 8 or so.

Doublewide v GOAT.
I definitley have DW in this one. Love ya GOATies, but... Some teams this weekend have shown they're on a mission. You're not one of them. 15-9, barring a late-game run from GOAT to make it seem closer.

Ironside v Madison.
Ironside is better than the teams Madison beat yesterday. By a good stretch. Is there a bit of chock for them in this one? I say yes. Ironside roars out to an early lead taking half to the tune of 8-3/4 and then MAdison makes a second half run to get within 2 (thinking 11-9) and then Ironside rides out to 15-10 or so.

Even though I say that, I think Ironside v Madison is the game with the biggest upset potental. Followed by: Revolver v Southpaw, Ring v Chain and DW v GOAT. In that order.

Ring v Chain.
This is the barnburner. That kind of flavor. I bet there are tuns and breaks and one-throw possessions in this one. These two teams, for whatever else they have, play high speed and go for the win rather than going for the "not-loss", so to speak. 17-16 Ring.

Finally, thus far, Oakland has lost to Madison, Chain, Doublewide. Tough fuckin' draw, that pool was. Since then, 2-0. Now they get to settle a score with Truck from Regionals in the semi-ninals. It'll do, but the schedule gods are cruel.

Good luck to all.

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so it took me until after lunch

to think about frisbee today

Open Pool A
Revolver might get challenged in one of these games. To the tune of 15-11 or so. The other two are 15-8 or less. Bravo or Goat? Tossup as always when the 8-9 seeds meet. As for the 'Dors? I have no faith.

Well, two tighter (15-11/12) games for Revolver. One 15-8. 15-9 against Machine in 1st round today.
GOAT takes it, only to lose 15-13 to Ring in power pool.
Bravo and the Condors go on to win the first games in kiddie pools.

these were against

Open Pool C
This is a mess. A Happy mess. Avg margin of victory in this pool will be <3 points. I'm going to pencil Southpaw in for 3 DGP games. I have no idea if they'll win or lose. My instinct tells me that Machine is the loser of this group and that Ring will not go undefeated. Furious? Well... I don't think they'll go undefeated either, but they definitely have the inside track to finishing 1 in the pool. FG and... I'll pick "Whichever team wins btw Ring and Paw" to advance. Machine and the loser of the MA battle go down.

Well, it was a mess, for sure. Ring wins the pool with 15-10 over Machine and doubling up Southpaw 15-7.
Furious starts off with a pair of 12-15 losses to Machine and Southpaw.
The pool finishes with two 17-16 games, the meaningless Ring>Furious and the vital Machine>Southpaw.

Ring is now secure in the quarters after their win over GOAT.
Revolver is secure in the quarters after their win over Machine.

GOAT v Machine for the right to go to the beach instead of playing pre-q.

Furious is out of Pre-Q with their loss to Bravo.
If Bravo wins the next one v Southpaw, they're in a pre-q.

Open Pool B
I think Ironside is actually be in for a bit of a tough time with this pool. In the end, yeah, I think they take it, but this pool is quite a bit more challenging for Boston than Pool A is for Revolver. Not convinced that Truck won't drop a winnable game to Sub-Zero, but I'd definitely put money on Truck if forced. Finally, which of S-Z or Tanasi will blow their Day 1 load against Truck&Ironside and lose a tight one only to get sent to the kiddie pool with a loss? Schedule says it is more likely to be S-Z. Especially if they get televised. Harder to throw a game when the fans who voted to see you are watching at home...

I'm always wrong about Ironside. They go 15-10,3,7. Then 15-9 in Power Pool v Chain. I'm guessing effeciency on the D-line is high. Get those O Players ready to start earning their keep without such big margins...
Truck joins them going 15-8,11 over Tanasi and S-Z. Promptly losing to Doublewide 15-8 on Day 2.
Spot on about Sub-Zero and Tanasi. Tanasi lost 15-3 while S-Z fought Truck for 15-11. Tanasi wins the next round v Sub-Zero. Both lose the first round in the kiddie pool.

These guys crossed over vs:

Open Pool D
Based on this tweet from @oaklandultimate I bet they win the annual award for "New team that shows up to their field late because they underestimated the traffic/parking/size of the fields/whatever". The other thing that'll happen to Oakland is that they think they'll know what's about to hit them when they play Chain and DW... but playing them at Nationals is a whole other thing. I am not saying that Oakland can't hang, but that they won't in those games. I will pick Oakland for the upset against Madison solely because of the number of times I've had Kanye&Jay-Z's Hate jump into my head because of you clowns. Late in the day, the Hate builds. As for Chain and DW... I pick Chain b/c of depth. Even after last year's Brodie-centric beating of PoNY (seriously... it felt like all of their offensive points were "Catch pull. Hit Brodie at the front of the stack. Give him 9 seconds to bomb it to someone beating double coverage."), I think Chain's style of point distribution mixed with a more coherent set of players/strategies will send them up to the power pool with the W from Double*ide.

Well, I was wrong on Doublewide, winners 15-9,8,6. Then a pair of 15-9 victories by DW&Ironside put them both into the quarters.

Chain v Truck for the next quarters spot. Loser plays pre-q's.

Oakland wwent down 9,8-15 in the first two games. Pretty spot on about that. Seems like the other teams let off the gas a little later in the games. Thought they'd beat out Madison though. Not to be w/ a 10-15 loss.

Madison pays back Sub-Zero for, well, everything in the first round today and eliminates them from pre-q's.
With a Club win over Tanasi, they'll be in pre-q.

So, we've got:

Quarters or better: Revolver v Ring, Ironside v Doublewide.
Playing for Quarters: Machine v GOAT, Chain v Truck.

Inside track to Pre-Q: Bravo, Madison.
Other: Southpaw, Oakland, Condors, Tanasi.

Playing for 13th: Sub-Zero, Furious.

Nice. Hope it's fun down there!

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Ha, I'm Retired

So I'm not in Sarasota

But this time, unlike 06&08, I'm actually not at all grumpy about it.

Being retired is fun. It means things like going to farmers' markets, meandering, checking out the new neighborhood, drinking a flight of Zwanzes at ChurckKey and the like are actually things I get to do before it gets bitter cold outside. Not that bitter cold stops a crazy-ass Northern European mutt like myself... but sometimes it gives one paws. I mean... pause.

The trade made is that I'm not down at the nexus of the universe of ultimate. Not getting irrational goosebumps on Tuesday. Not falling asleep dreaming of things I'll to do on the field while my teammates toss and turn. Not seeing the sun rise as the steam floats from my coffee.

More specifically, I'm not wander over to ask Jim and Jaeger 1000 little questions. I'm not getting lessons in what to cook for breakfast from J and Jude. I'm not seeing a Ho-train at a Waffle House at 3am with LambJuice, Lunchbox, Spike and Squigglio. I'm not talking the speed of coffee consumption with a farmer. And I'm definitely not watching Troll 2.

So it goes.

That all said, I'm missing Sara' just enough this morning to write a little on some pre-game thoughts. Not sure how this 'll come out since it is 7:40am on a Thursday and my goal is to finish this by 8:15, but away we go. Oh, and my computer battery seems to be burning itself in effigy. Only without the flames or the effigy. I mean it is running out of charge.

Open Pool A
Revolver might get challenged in one of these games. To the tune of 15-11 or so. The other two are 15-8 or less. Bravo or Goat? Tossup as always when the 8-9 seeds meet. As for the 'Dors? I have no faith.

Open Pool B
I think Ironside is actually be in for a bit of a tough time with this pool. In the end, yeah, I think they take it, but this pool is quite a bit more challenging for Boston than Pool A is for Revolver. Not convinced that Truck won't drop a winnable game to Sub-Zero, but I'd definitely put money on Truck if forced. Finally, which of S-Z or Tanasi will blow their Day 1 load against Truck&Ironside and lose a tight one only to get sent to the kiddie pool with a loss? Schedule says it is more likely to be S-Z. Especially if they get televised. Harder to thhrow a game when the fans who voted to see you are watching at home...

Open Pool C
This is a mess. A Happy mess. Avg margin of victory in this pool will be <3 points. I'm going to pencil Southpaw in for 3 DGP games. I have no idea if they'll win or lose. My instinct tells me that Machine is the loser of this group and that Ring will not go undefeated. Furious? Well... I don't think they'll go undefeated either, but they definitely have the inside track to finishing 1 in the pool. FG and... I'll pick "Whichever team wins btw Ring and Paw" to advance. Machine and the loser of the MA battle go down.

Open Pool D
Based on this tweet from @oaklandultimate I bet they win the annual award for "New team that shows up to their field late because they underestimated the traffic/parking/size of the fields/whatever". The other thing that'll happen to Oakland is that they think they'll know what's about to hit them when they play Chain and DW... but playing them at Nationals is a whole other thing. I am not saying that Oakland can't hang, but that they won't in those games. I will pick Oakland for the upset against Madison solely because of the number of times I've had Kanye&Jay-Z's Hate jump into my head because of you clowns. Late in the day, the Hate builds. As for Chain and DW... I pick Chain b/c of depth. Even after last year's Brodie-centric beating of PoNY (seriously... it felt like all of their offensive points were "Catch pull. Hit Brodie at the front of the stack. Give him 9 seconds to bomb it to someone beating double coverage."), I think Chain's style of point distribution mixed with a more coherent set of players/strategies will send them up to the power pool with the W from Double*ide.

As for Coed? Well, we're already 1 minute overtime. I'll just say I'm rooting for D5, The Ghosts, Slow White, Termite's and AMP to rock some shit. Women's? Green Means Go isn't there, so... I'll cheer for Bent.

Edition #2 tomorrow? Only Time Will Tell.

Damn. 6min overtime.

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Burning Ring

Back on top again


And all is right in the Midatlantic.

Congrats to qualifiers Ring, Truck Stop, Oakland, Southpaw.

This weekend I played with Ellis Kim's Seatless Bicycle. Or, 9 no 14 no 13 no 7 no 8 /27ths of our roster. That is to say, At sectionals we had about 13 guys. Which was good. At Regionals which was on October First and Se, no Oct. Eighth andbutsoitmightbe October First still in Kennett Squa... no, definitely October Eighth and Ninth in Poolesville as was originally planned as a backup. No, we're going to Kennett Square probably this weekend.

Point is, we went from about 27 guys on the roster (at least 4 of whom we never saw all year) to expecting 24 for Regionals. Then we were expecting 14 maybe 18 for Regionals when it was rescheduled. Then we gained or lost depending on where it was that weekend and how late we found out as the weekend approached.

We had 14. I think. A guy from Fishtown in my car forgot his cleats. But he remembered his Roots and to lock the front door. Beam to North Philly for the never-materializing-for-club-ultimate-"Dundee", fly to west Philly for Cuatro and Smellis and then back to the beginning of this sentence. Back to Fishtown.

95 to 322 to 1 to the game just started over there versus Cash Crop.

We have possessions on O and D that end in drops. Some in the endzone. Some just bizarre. Finkbot is overheating. Some multiple-drop points on our side. Too many points are being played. We lose 15-8.

Next round versus Medicine Men. We have more drops. We are down at half. Then we go on a mini-run to start the second half. How many drops? Too many, money. It was unreal. Surreal. Hyperreal.

No, just really actually normal real. For a team with no pracices and too much rain everywhere to play anything against other teams... it was expected. Irene knocked over the goddamn Bike.

Med Men win 15-8.

Cash Crop plays like they know they're good.
Med Men play like they have to prove to you and each other they're good.

They're both not bad.

Through two games, we found one consistent way to fail.

We play competent defense and messy though competent offense.

Then we get a sectionals rematch vs Hypnotoad who is clearly more excited to play us this time around than they were at sectionals. And we are clearly less excited to be playing them at this point in the day. We get out to a couple of leads, and then have more drops and they put it up with enough success that that convert some of their break opportunities on the key notion that most of us have already played far more points per hour than this contract called for. Some guy had to farm. Another guy is working in Illinois. Some gotta do grants and shit. Some have wife-passes that turn into pumpkins and some's wife-passes contain no-raincheck clauses. And then there are guys who can't spell their own first names.

Oh, and it definitely didn't help us that our biggest cutter and most reliable deep threat, Nick Scheiner, seemed to have definitively hurt his knee going up faaaar too early for a disc and getting undercut by a defender. Yikes.

Then a Sectionals Rematch vs the three seed from another pool: Bearproof. This is like the adult version of Hypnotoad. This does not end well for EKSB since we have lost our will to actually run deep on defense and attempt to substitute "stand rather deep and hope they don't throw it" which doesn't work against a team that it used to winning or losing by throwing it anyway and our deep defenders are like 5'10". Loss for us, with fewer drops, 9-15.

And now we're eliminated from the series. Series results:

7-15 L Southpaw
11-15 L Bearproof
15-8 W Gavel
13-2 W Princeton
13-5 W Hypnotoad
13-5 W Lehigh Alums

8-15 L Cash Crop
8-15 L Medicine Men
15-13 W Hypnotoad
9-15 L Bearproof

5-5, played against 2 teams outside our section. Tomorrow we play in the kiddie pool!

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Most of our team declard themselves out for the next day. We talked some of them back into it... but... One of them had to get to a hospital the next day... Anyway, a crazy trip to the beer-excellent Pinocchio's Pizza was undertaken.

The next morning had us pitted against Queen City Thunder who were unsure if we would show. I too was unsure. We got 7 on by about 9:15. On o the guys who didn't get on was from Rutgers and was there before the rest of us. Not Smellis.

They were up pretty big. I think still up big at half. Maybe 2-8 or 3-8? Then we were up 9-8.

Then we traded and went on mini runs or something until it was 11-12 and they were pulling to us. I got it and overthrew a 55yd blade to Venose. Which is hard to do. They scored to make it 11-13, game to 14. Some cap something was involved in there, not sure when, but this was the correct result.

We scored, they scored, game over.

Yay, we finish 13th?

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Wait, we finished sectionals and regionals without playing a single team from western PA? No ugly-since-1995 game against Pittsburgh? Weird.

Southpaw and Oakland are real.

The difference btw Southpaw and Oakland is vast but little.

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Update of Southpaw's record, into tiers:

to make:
0-1 v Chain, Furious, Revolver (-22 pf diff, -7.33 per game)
1-3 v Ironside (-18 pt diff, -4.5 per game)

2-4 v PoNY (-11 pt diff, -1.83 per game)
0-1 v Voodoo, GB, Ring (-5 pt diff, -1.67

2-1 v Cash Crop (-1, -.25)
3-0 v Oakland, NexGen (+6 pt diff, +2 per game)

2-1 v MedMen (+9 pt diff, +3 per game)
1-0 v Truck Stop (+4)
1-0 v Dire Wolf, Hypnotoad, VA Squires (+16, +5.33)
1-0 v Bear Proof, EKSB (+15, +7.5)
2-0 v Philly Gavel, QCT, Swell(+34, +11.33)

Looking at that, knowing that they're going to Nationals, what might you wonder? How did they do against Truck stop at Regionals? Never Happened.

How about now that Cash Crop isn't there? Cash Crop v Truck Stop never happened. At all. All season. How about Cash Crop v Ring? Never happened at Regionals.

In the Sunday 1pm round, 4 teams all played nationals-level games. They all proved theselves worthy. Ring and Truck played a great final. 15-14. Oakland and Cash Crop played a great 14-13 game next door. All of those teams are Nationals-level.

Southpaw is Nationals-level too. But Medicine Men were not up to the level of play that equals that round in the bracket. If you're playing, you're playing either "Finals" or "Game to go" or "Game to Go Home". There are 4 teams alive for 2 spots. After this round, There will be 2 alive for 1 spot. Losing 15-10... puts you in the place you were before regionals. Just like you were the round before, losing 15-10 to the Haiders. Even EKSB playing savage only lost by 2 that round! I mean, if you're gonna upset the pool, do something with it.

Cash vs Southpaw in the game-to-go was predictable. Cash needed to take Oakland's path to advance. They didn't have the depth to stay with Southpaw in the 8th round of the weekend. Speaking of which, how cool would it have been to be the 8 or 9 seed in this format?? Basically play a 17pt exhibition game against the 1 seed, get a bye, and play one game that has no consequence w/r/t elimination? Sweet, right? Well, the Squires got rewarded with Pool D + W v Bear Proof (L to Oakland, Southpaw) to get Eliminated. Dire Wolf beat Swell and Capitol Punishment to lose to Med Men.

Or how about the notion that 6/7 Founders Teams, if seeds held, would have rematches on the first day. One for an elimination game. c3vb3. one for the last game of the only two eliminated teams on day 1: c4vb4. Someone in there could have been switched somewhere, right? Some matchup up or down one?

Anyway.

Southpaw might still be your 2011 "litmus test" AKA "TMITIU".

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